The security policy situation in Europe and adjacent areas is now more uncertain and unpredictable than it has been for a long time. A number of European countries are facing economic, social and political problems that will in the next few years require substantial resources and considerable attention.
This situation is fertile ground for a broad range of state and non-state actors that represent a threat. However, the threat picture differs considerably from one European country to another.
So far, Norway has not suffered from violence and terrorism by Islamist groups or right-wing extremists in the same way as some other countries in Europe. However, we know that new threats can suddenly emerge. A minor incident may have major and often unexpected consequences for the threat picture, in Norway as well as elsewhere. The transnational nature of such threats also means that all countries must cooperate more closely on counteracting them.
The Annual Threat Assessment is an assessment of expected developments in PST’s areas of responsibility in the year ahead. In drawing up the assessment we have had to strike a balance between a detailed description and simple, clear information. This Threat Assessment is therefore intended to present the main outlines of the most likely threats Norway will face in the coming year. The target group consists of those in Norwegian society who wish for public information about expected developments in the threat picture.
In the work on this assessment we have made use of information from a number of different sources. We have also based our assessment on information from other government agencies such as the Intelligence Service and the National Security Authority.